Tue. Oct 20th, 2020


Respondents also had the option to vote for third party candidates or “someone else”. They could also state that they would not vote.

Similar to our poll for the first presidential debate, most respondents had a strong feeling for the two presidential tickets and said they were absolutely sure they would vote for one or the other. And in line with our polling average, more people said they were likely to vote for Biden than for Trump. Overall, 43 percent said they were “perfectly sure” to vote for Biden, while only 31 percent said the same for Trump.

But as in the first debate, Biden’s lead among respondents was not reflected in their views of his chances. Many respondents, regardless of who they wanted to support, thought the race was more likely a mistake: when asked to rate the candidates’ chances of winning on a scale of 0 to 10, they gave Trump a score of 4.6 and Biden a Score of 4.7 on average.

Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate? 4

Supporters vote rather than enthusiastically

How likely and how excited respondents are to voting for preferred candidates in the 2020 presidential election

Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate? 2

Trump card

How likely is it that you will vote?

How excited are you to choose

Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate? 1

Biden

How likely is it that you will vote?

How excited are you to choose

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each ticket on a scale from 0 to 10. Your preferred ticket is the one that got the higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included. Respondents who have already voted will be put in the “absolutely safe” bucket, and respondents who have given themselves a 50:50 vote will be put in the “not too likely” bucket.

Overall, the vast majority of respondents say they are highly motivated to vote. And those who know which candidate they support are particularly motivated: 86 percent of Biden voters and 82 percent of Trump voters say they are “absolutely sure” to vote. Among them are 10 percent of Biden supporters who say they have already voted. For Trump’s supporters, that number is 5 percent. The excitement about the vote is also high – nearly half of each candidate’s supporters said they were “very excited” and another fifth said they were “a little excited”.

The popularity contest

How positively did the respondents rate each candidate?

We also track how positively respondents view Pence and Harris. Pence isn’t quite as unpopular as Trump – its net perk (cheap valuation minus bad valuation) is -14, while Trump is -24 in our poll. Harris is now almost as popular as Biden; Her net perk is +4 while Biden’s is +6. But for both vice presidential nominees, there is a sizable group – about 11 percent for Pence and 15 percent for Harris – who say they have never heard of the candidate or have no opinion of him or her. That’s a bigger percentage than any of the presidential candidates, of course, so there is a real chance for those favoritism numbers to shift after the debate.

Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate? 8

Harris

Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate? 9

Pence

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By ashish

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